So guys, the scene is something like this – XAUUSD aka Gold has already completed its previous run, and the new week is about to start in a few hours. So I thought I should break it down for you – what we can expect from Gold in this upcoming weekly move.

So guys, last week XAUUSD printed approximately a high of 4858, a low of 4697, and finally closed at 4749. The volume was slightly higher than the previous weekly bar on ICMarkets and GC1!, but slightly lower on OANDA. Apart from that, the spread was also narrower compared to the previous weekly bar across all charts I mentioned.

According to my interpretation – this is a Sign of Weakness (SOW).

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Daily Timeframe Insight

If we zoom into the daily timeframe, after the April 9 UPTHRUST, the market tested demand on April 10 and 11 — and so far, it looks like No Demand to me.

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H4 Timeframe – This Is Where Things Get Interesting

Now if we zoom further into the H4 timeframe, this is where the real story starts:

• April 7 (UTC 22:00) > Buying Climax (BC) – High was 4858, Low was 4710, and Closed at 4818
• Followed by Automatic Reaction (AR)
• Then on April 8 (UTC 14:00) > Panic Selling Bar
• After that > Drying Volume, where the market tested the previous RBS level of 4700
• On lower timeframes > Accumulation happened, then 4735 breakout, and finally after testing 4800, supply entered the market
• Price dropped to around 4730

After that, the market tried to push up again:

• High is 4796, Low is 4747, Close is 4758
• This move came on Ultra High Volume (UHV) but closed near the lows > Failed Effort

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Current Structure

Right now:

• On H4, 4735 has become a support zone
• The market also gave its weekly close near this zone (4749)

So overall:

• Weekly > Weakness
• Daily > No Demand
• H4 > Buying Climax + Weak Structure

From my perspective:

• Secondary Test (ST) already happened around 4800
• Phase A of Distribution is complete
• Market is now in Phase B (confusion area)

So now I’m treating:

• 4858 as the CREEK
• 4698 as the ICE

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Bearish Scenarios

Scenario 1 (Direct Drop):

If the market drops from current levels and gives a clean bearish breakout below 4698, followed by a successful retest:

• First target > 4540–4538

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Scenario 2 (Move Up Then Weakness):

If the market moves up and shows No Demand near 4858:

• First target > 4690–4698
• And if 4698 breaks and retests successfully:
  • Second target > 4540–4538

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Scenario 3 (UTAD Setup):

If the market breaks above 4858, but:

• The breakout fails (closes back below 4858)
• Then gives a successful test

> This becomes a UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution)

Targets:

• First target > 4698 (ICE)
• Break + retest of 4698 > 4540–4538

Note: In case of UTAD, ideally targets should be recalculated – but structurally, after 4698 breaks, 4540–4538 becomes highly likely.

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Bullish Scenario (Risky Area)

Honestly, taking longs at current levels is very risky.

Scenario 1 (ICE Test):

If the market moves down and tests 4698 (ICE):

• If Drying Volume or No Supply appears:
  • Target 1 > 4800
  • Target 2 > 4858

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Scenario 2 (Spring Formation):

If the market dips below 4698, forms a Spring, and then shows strong demand with a successful test:

• First target > 4800
• Second target > 4858
• If breakout of 4858 + successful test happens:
  • Third target > 5065

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TL;DR

• Weekly = Weakness
• Daily = No Demand
• H4 = Buying Climax + Distribution (Phase B)

Key Levels:

• 4858 = CREEK
• 4698 = ICE

Bearish Bias:

• Below 4698 > 4540–4538

If price moves up:

• No Demand near 4858 > short setups
• Fake breakout (UTAD) > strong sell opportunity

Bullish only if:

• Strong reaction from 4698 (No Supply / Spring)

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Disclaimer

This is not financial advice. I’m just a random guy staring at charts, drawing imaginary lines, whispering “absorption” and “liquidity” to myself while drinking chai and pretending I understand what smart money is doing.

If Gold completely ignores this analysis and does the exact opposite, please direct all complaints to, Central banks, Market makers, Liquidity providers, Your broker, Your internet connection, Or your own FOMO.

Trade safe. Or at least trade consciously.