GBPUSD Is Setting a Trap Again? Weekly VSA Analysis (Jan 12–16, 2026)

Alright, ladies and gentlemen, the new GBPUSD trading week is about to begin, so I thought — why not discuss what kind of mischief Cable might be planning this time.

Here’s the situation.

Weekly Context:

GBPUSD closed the previous week as a classic Upthrust — and yes, that’s already a red flag waving politely at retail traders.

• Weekly High: ~1.35720
• Weekly Low: ~1.33909
• Weekly Close: ~1.34021
• Volume: Higher than the previous two weekly bars on GBPUSD Futures (6B1!)

Translation?
Price tried to go up, failed miserably, and closed near the lows — with effort. Smart money doesn’t do that for charity.

The December 8, 2025 Climactic Action Context:

Now here’s where it gets interesting.

GBPUSD has closed inside the high of the December 8th, 2025 Weekly Climactic Action Bar:

• Futures (6B1!) High: ~1.3440
• Spot Equivalent: ~1.34452

This is important because climactic bars often act like “do not cross” zones unless the market really means business.

And let’s be honest — most breakouts don’t mean business. They mean liquidity harvesting.

Primary Scenario for the Upcoming Week:

If the December 8th weekly high remains intact and no clean breakout occurs, then:

Lower timeframes should offer high-quality SHORT opportunities

But — and this is a big but — no blind selling.

You want to see:

• Signs of Weakness (SOW)
• Failed tests
• Supply entering the market
• Weak reactions on rallies

Basically, let the market expose itself before you press the sell button.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Short Trigger (Futures): 1.3440
• Short Trigger (Spot): 1.34452

If price approaches this zone and starts showing weakness on lower timeframes, shorts become interesting.

Invalidation Level (Bias Flip Alert):

A clean breakout and acceptance above 1.3455 will:

• Kill this bearish idea
• Flip the bias to bullish
• Force bears (including us) to stop pretending the market owes us money

No coping allowed beyond that level.

Conclusion:

This week is shaping up to be a make-or-break zone for GBPUSD.
If supply defends the December climactic high, the downside could unfold nicely.
If not — well — the market will once again remind us who’s in charge.

Trade what you see, not what you hope.

TL;DR:

• GBPUSD printed a Weekly Upthrust with high volume
• Price closed inside December 8th, 2025 Climactic High
• Bias: Bearish below 1.3440–1.34452
• Look for short entries on lower timeframes with Signs of Weakness
• Break above 1.3455 = bearish idea invalid
• Market doesn’t care about your bias — manage risk

Disclaimer:

This analysis is just me vibing with charts and sipping chai – not financial advice.

If you decide to mortgage your house, pawn your cat, or sell your cousin’s wedding ring to go all-in on GBPUSD… and GBPUSD decides to go opposite you just to humble you – don’t send me angry messages.

Trade safe, or GBPUSD will personally teach you what humility feels like.