Alrighty traders, it’s 12:30 AM, Monday’s knocking on our charts, and XAUUSD (aka His Royal Shininess: Gold) is preparing to throw a tantrum — again. And instead of sleeping like a normal human being, I’m here serving you some caffeine-coated insight. So grab your chai, hide your bias, and let’s dive into what Gold’s been up to and what chaos awaits this week.
Last Week’s Soap Opera Recap:
- Weekly High: 3451
- Weekly Low: 3340
- Weekly Close: 3368
Translation? These are your new sacred levels. Expect price action drama around these zones. They’re either going to play nice as demand zones… or betray you like that one indicator you trusted in 2021.
Also, the weekly candle is giving No Supply vibes — you know, that candle that looks like it wants to crash but just… doesn’t. So don’t be surprised if next week Gold says, “Fine, I’ll go up.”
Bearish Breakdown?
If 3340 breaks, don’t panic (okay, panic a little) — but 3300–3290 might catch the fall. If that breaks too?
Welcome to 3200–3180, population: nervous longs.
But honestly? Highly unlikely. Unless Gold wakes up and chooses violence. Again.
Bullish Scenarios (Aka Where Your Buy Button Might Make Sense):
- Buying pressure possible above 3368
- If that fails, look around 3340
- If we dip even lower, then watch 3300–3290 for signs of life
Below that? Well… let’s just say, light a candle and whisper sweet nothings to your stop-loss.
Friday’s Candle Drama (Daily TF):
Volume was actually higher than Thursday. But instead of closing up and giving us a clear No Supply confirmation, Friday pulled a down-close with hidden demand. Like, “Hey, I’m bearish… but not really.”
It opened at 3370, touched 3340, and closed at 3368 — basically threw a tantrum but didn’t break anything. Cute.
So What Now?
If Monday opens and Gold dips into 3358–3352, that’s where you might want to watch for a bounce. If it doesn’t bounce… well, good luck, soldier.
Hourly Chart – AKA the Bearish Channel Diaries
Since June 16th, Gold’s been strolling down a lovely bearish channel. No breakout from a previous Lower High yet. Both upper and lower trendlines are still standing tall — like desi aunties at a wedding keeping an eye on everything.
Until we break above the previous LH or smash the upper trendline, the market’s just going to keep humming its bearish lullaby. But hey — breakout = mood change.
So if Monday wants to go bullish, here’s the plan:
- Bounce from 3358–3352
- Break previous LH or upper TL
- Create a Higher High
- Declare “I’m bullish now” and ghost all shorts.
Oh Right, the War Stuff…
Because why not, right?
- Ukraine vs. Russia is still a thing.
- Israel vs. Iran decided to launch Season 2.
- USA? Already in the group chat and throwing missiles.
So fundamentally, Gold’s been handed the perfect excuse to pump. Don’t be surprised if it moonwalks out of the channel just because someone sneezed in the Middle East.
TL;DR for the Attention-Deficit Traders:
- Watch 3358–3352 → daily demand zone for Monday bounce
- Watch 3368, 3340, 3300–3290 for buy reactions
- Bearish channel still valid unless upper TL or previous LH breaks
- War = Gold’s caffeine
- Don’t cry if it doesn’t follow your zones — it’s Gold, not your obedient dog.
Disclaimer:
This isn’t financial advice — this is sleep-deprived sarcasm mixed with actual market structure and a sprinkle of PTSD from 2020.
If you get rich? Buy me a samosa. If you blow your account? That’s between you and your over-leveraged lot size.
Stop-loss is not a suggestion — it’s a lifestyle. And for heaven’s sake, stop proposing to every bullish candle like it’s “The One.”
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