Alright folks, the time has come again — Gold (XAUUSD) just wrapped up one wild week from October 6th to October 10th, 2025, and as of October 12th (just hours before the new weekly open), the million-dollar question is:
Is Gold about to take another giant leap, or is it finally time for a breather?
Let’s dive into what XAUUSD might be planning for this upcoming week — October 13th to October 17th, 2025 — before it makes its next big move.
Weekly Overview: Record-Breaking Volume & Massive Tug of War
Gold went full beast mode last week. It touched a high near $4060, dipped to a low around $3884, and finally closed the week at $4012 — with Ultra High Volume (UHV) across major brokers (ICMarkets, OANDA, and even Gold Futures GC1!).
In fact, it was the highest weekly volume ever recorded on ICMarkets — even higher than the 30-week moving average.
On the OANDA chart, the last time we saw volume this high was back in March 2022 — and even Gold Futures (GC1!) showed a similar volume spike during that same period.
Now here’s the twist — while Gold Futures (GC1!) showed a classic “Tug of War” between supply and demand, Gold Spot clearly leaned bullish, showing demand overcoming supply on both ICMarkets and OANDA charts.
Daily Chart Shows Potential Sign of Weakness (SOW)
Zooming into the Daily timeframe, Friday’s candle (October 10th, 2025) told a different story.
It was a High Effort vs Low Result bar, which in Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) terms means a potential Sign of Weakness (SOW).
Friday’s range was roughly:
- High: $4022
- Low: $3944
- Close: $4012
Here’s what went down:
On Thursday (Oct 9), supply showed up strong. Then on Friday (Oct 10), demand tried to fight back — hard — but failed to fully absorb that supply.
How do we know? Friday’s candle closed in the middle of Thursday’s spread, with higher volume than Thursday. That’s a UHV narrow spread up bar with weakness in the background — a red flag.
In simpler terms:
Bulls tried their best. Supply didn’t flinch.
Therefore, as long as $4060 (the high of Wednesday and Thursday) remains unbroken, I’m leaning bearish.
How much XAUUSD (Gold) will fall — that will only be clear after a bearish breakout below $3944, but from what I can see, a test of $3944 looks highly likely.
If a bearish breakout occurs below $3944, the next stop would likely be around $3895 — an RBS (Resistance Becomes Support) level from where potential demand could emerge.
H4 Timeframe: Supply Absorbed but Not Defeated
Looking at the H4 chart, the last H4 candle on October 10th, 2025 (UTC 18:02) showed signs of supply absorption, but failed to push above $4022 — closing right back at $4012.
The $4022 area is now critical. It’s the battleground zone where supply could hit back again.
If price breaks above $4022, a retest of $4050–$4060 becomes highly likely. But remember — as long as $4060 holds, the bearish bias stays intact.
Should Gold manage to decisively break and hold above $4060, I’ll happily flip my bias — because charts don’t care about ego.
H1 Timeframe: Early Strength, But Supply Still in Control
On both the H1 and H4 charts, there’s a visible Sign of Strength (SOS) forming. However, don’t get carried away — the upper supply zones are still intact.
Until those zones are cleanly broken, long entries around current levels could turn messy and risky.
In short: Yes, there’s a bit of strength building… but the bears aren’t done yet.
Please note, this analysis is exclusively focused on XAUUSD (Gold Spot). I only refer to Gold Futures (GC1!) occasionally for volume confirmation, not for price projection or bias formation.
TLDR
- Bias: Bearish as long as $4060 remains unbroken – SHORTING opportunities could emerge near current levels.
- Key Support Level: $3944 – If breaks below, next stop would be 3895-3884.
- Weekly Range: High $4060 / Low $3884.
- Weekly Close: $4012 – on Ultra High Volume (UHV) across all major brokers.
- Key Supply / Resistance Zones: $4022 and $4050–$4060.
- Volume: Record-breaking — confirms serious participation, not random volatility.
Disclaimer
This analysis is just me vibing with charts and sipping chai – not financial advice.
If you decide to mortgage your house, pawn your cat, or sell your cousin’s wedding ring to go all-in on XAUUSD… and Gold decides to nosedive just to humble you – don’t send me angry messages.
Trade safe, or Gold will personally teach you what humility feels like.
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